Primera División (Chile) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:00 · Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido
Likeliest: Coquimbo Unido win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cobresal26%29%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Coquimbo Unido45%44%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 39% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cobresal
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 7 · at Deportes Limache (A)0-3
- Aug 28 · v Palestino (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Deportes La Serena (A)3-3
- Aug 16 · v Deportes Concepción (H)0-2
- Aug 8 · at Universidad Católica (A)0-2
Coquimbo Unido
DrawLossDrawWinLoss
- Sep 6 · at Universidad de Chile (A)2-4
- Sep 2 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Huachipato (H)0-0
- Aug 26 · v Universidad Católica (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Deportes Concepción (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cobresal | Coquimbo Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-5 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.