Primera División (Chile) · Sat, Oct 10 · 18:00 · Cobresal vs Universidad de Concepción
Likeliest: Cobresal win · 44%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cobresal44%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Universidad de Concepción29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cobresal
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Sep 12 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)3-2
- Sep 7 · at Deportes Limache (A)0-3
- Aug 28 · v Palestino (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Deportes La Serena (A)3-3
- Aug 16 · v Deportes Concepción (H)0-2
Universidad de Concepción
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 2 · v Huachipato (H)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Palestino (A)1-2
- Sep 2 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · v Universidad de Chile (H)2-1
- Aug 24 · at Everton de Viña del Mar (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Cobresal | Universidad de Concepción |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-0-2 | 0-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.