Botola Pro (Morocco) · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:00 · CODM Meknès vs Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech
Likeliest: CODM Meknès win · 36%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 36% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CODM Meknès36%39%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%31%+3
OursMarket
Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 37% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 69% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CODM Meknès
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 26 · at Difaâ Hassani El-Jadidi (A)6-2
- Jul 5 · at Ittihad Tanger (A)1-2
- Jul 2 · v AS FAR Rabat (H)3-2
- Jul 2 · v FAR Rabat (H)3-2
- Jun 28 · at Olympic Safi (A)2-2
Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 27 · v Hassania d'Agadir (H)2-3
- Jul 5 · at Hassania d'Agadir (A)1-1
- Jul 2 · v MAS de Fès (H)0-0
- Jun 28 · at Difaâ Hassani El-Jadidi (A)1-1
- Jun 25 · v Fath Union Sport (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | CODM Meknès | Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.