Botola Pro (Morocco) · Sat, Oct 17 · 18:00 · CODM Meknès vs Union Touarga Sport
Likeliest: CODM Meknès win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CODM Meknès42%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Union Touarga Sport25%26%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CODM Meknès
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Wydad Casablanca (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Kawkab Athletic Club Marrakech (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Difaâ Hassani El-Jadidi (A)6-2
- Jul 5 · at Ittihad Tanger (A)1-2
- Jul 2 · v AS FAR Rabat (H)3-2
Union Touarga Sport
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 8 · v RS Berkane (H)0-0
- Oct 2 · at Widad Temara (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Fath Union Sport (H)2-1
- Jul 21 · v JS Massira (H)3-0
- Jul 17 · at JS Massira (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | CODM Meknès | Union Touarga Sport |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.