League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Colchester United vs Exeter City
Likeliest: Colchester United win · 42%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colchester United42%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+4
OursMarket
Exeter City28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colchester United
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Newport County (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Luton Town (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Peterborough United (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Cheltenham Town (H)1-1
Exeter City
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Oxford United (H)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Rotherham United (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Bristol Rovers (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · at Cheltenham Town (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Colchester United | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.