Football League Trophy (England) · Sat, Oct 3 · 14:00 · Colchester United vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 57%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 57% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colchester United18%21%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Luton Town57%54%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 79% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colchester United
LossDrawDrawLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at Shrewsbury Town (A)2-2
- Sep 22 · at Peterborough United (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Cheltenham Town (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Swindon Town (A)1-3
Luton Town
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 22 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
- Sep 10 · at Stevenage (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Leyton Orient (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Stockport County (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Colchester United | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.