EFL Cup (England) · Sat, Aug 8 · 16:30 · Colchester United vs Southampton
Likeliest: Southampton win · 37%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colchester United36%11%+25
OursMarket
Draw27%17%+10
OursMarket
Southampton37%72%−35
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 48% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 28% | +35 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 89% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 83% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 13% | +37 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colchester United
WinWinLossLossWin
- May 2 · at Cheltenham Town (A)4-1
- Apr 25 · v Notts County (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Harrogate Town (A)0-1
- Apr 14 · v Accrington Stanley (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · v Swindon Town (H)3-0
Southampton
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- May 12 · v Middlesbrough (H)2-1
- May 9 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- May 2 · at Preston North End (A)3-1
- Apr 28 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Colchester United | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.