Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Colegiales vs Atlético de Rafaela
Likeliest: Colegiales win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colegiales52%52%0
OursMarket
Draw31%30%+1
OursMarket
Atlético de Rafaela16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 41% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colegiales
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Agropecuario Argentino (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Tristán Suárez (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Güemes (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at San Martín de San Juan (A)0-2
Atlético de Rafaela
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Quilmes Atlético Club (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Ferrocarril Midland (A)0-4
- Oct 3 · v Atlanta (H)2-3
- Sep 27 · at Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v San Martín de Tucumán (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Colegiales | Atlético de Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 70% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-0 | 0-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.