Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Sep 13 · 20:30 · Colo Colo vs Deportes Concepción
Likeliest: Colo Colo win · 69%
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colo Colo69%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
Deportes Concepción12%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colo Colo
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 6 · at Huachipato (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Audax Italiano (H)5-1
- Aug 23 · at Universidad de Chile (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v O'Higgins (H)2-2
- Aug 9 · at Unión La Calera (A)2-1
Deportes Concepción
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 5 · v Audax Italiano (H)0-1
- Aug 30 · at Ñublense (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)1-1
- Aug 16 · at Cobresal (A)2-0
- Aug 9 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Colo Colo | Deportes Concepción |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.