Friendly International (World) · Sat, Oct 3 · 00:00 · Colombia vs Paraguay
Likeliest: Colombia win · 55%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colombia55%55%0
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Paraguay17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colombia
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 27 · at Mexico (A)1-1
- Jul 7 · at Switzerland (A)0-0
- Jul 4 · v Ghana (H)1-0
- Jun 27 · v Portugal (H)0-0
- Jun 24 · v DR Congo (H)1-0
Paraguay
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 27 · at Bolivia (A)2-0
- Jul 4 · v France (H)0-1
- Jun 29 · at Germany (A)1-1
- Jun 26 · v Australia (H)0-0
- Jun 20 · at Turkey (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Colombia | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.