Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Wed, Oct 14 · 18:00 · Colón Reserve vs Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve
Likeliest: Colón Reserve win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colón Reserve41%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colón Reserve
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 8 · at Boca Juniors Reserve (A)0-1
- Oct 1 · v CD Riestra Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 25 · v Unión Santa Fe Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 15 · at CA Independiente Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 8 · v Belgrano Reserve (H)1-3
Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 7 · at CD Riestra Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Belgrano Reserve (H)0-0
- Sep 24 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Reserve (H)0-1
- Sep 16 · at Lanús Reserve (A)3-3
- Sep 10 · v Newell's Old Boys Reserve (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Colón Reserve | Independiente Rivadavia De Mendoza Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-4 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.