Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 01:30 · Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United
Likeliest: Colorado Rapids win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colorado Rapids43%46%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+2
OursMarket
Minnesota United30%28%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 62% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colorado Rapids
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at LA Galaxy (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)3-3
- Sep 17 · v St.Louis City (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v CF Montréal (H)1-0
Minnesota United
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · v Houston Dynamo (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v LA Galaxy (H)2-3
- Sep 13 · at St.Louis City (A)2-4
- Sep 10 · v FC Dallas (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Colorado Rapids | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.