US Open Cup (USA) · Thu, Sep 17 · 01:30 · Colorado Rapids vs St.Louis City
Likeliest: Colorado Rapids win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colorado Rapids38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
St.Louis City33%34%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colorado Rapids
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v CF Montréal (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at Austin FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Columbus Crew (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Real Salt Lake (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · at San Diego FC (A)0-3
St.Louis City
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v Minnesota United (H)4-2
- Sep 10 · at Portland Timbers (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Dallas (H)3-3
- Aug 23 · v Houston Dynamo (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Colorado Rapids | St.Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.