Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 01:30 · Colorado Rapids vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Likeliest: Vancouver Whitecaps win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colorado Rapids27%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Vancouver Whitecaps46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colorado Rapids
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Portland Timbers (A)0-0
- Oct 15 · v Minnesota United (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at LA Galaxy (A)2-3
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)3-3
Vancouver Whitecaps
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Austin FC (A)2-1
- Oct 15 · at St.Louis City (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Los Angeles FC (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · at Chicago Fire (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v DC United (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Colorado Rapids | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.