USL Championship (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:00 · Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC vs FC Tulsa
Likeliest: Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC win · 62%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC62%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
FC Tulsa14%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Monterey Bay FC (A)1-0
- Oct 11 · at Sacramento Republic FC (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Oakland Roots SC (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Detroit City FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v New Mexico United (H)0-0
FC Tulsa
DrawWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Oakland Roots SC (H)2-4
- Oct 9 · at Lexington SC (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Sacramento Republic FC (H)1-1
- Oct 1 · v New Mexico United (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at El Paso Locomotive FC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC | FC Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.