US Open Cup (USA) · Wed, Sep 16 · 23:00 · Columbus Crew vs Orlando City SC
Likeliest: Columbus Crew win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Columbus Crew47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Orlando City SC27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 66% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Columbus Crew
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v New York Red Bulls (H)0-1
- Sep 9 · at DC United (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Colorado Rapids (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · v New England Revolution (H)1-3
- Aug 27 · at Club América (A)0-2
Orlando City SC
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Toronto FC (H)3-0
- Sep 9 · at Atlanta United (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · v San Diego FC (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Minnesota United (A)3-3
- Aug 22 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Columbus Crew | Orlando City SC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.