Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Tue, Aug 11 · 23:30 · Columbus Crew vs Pumas UNAM
Likeliest: Columbus Crew win · 41%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Columbus Crew41%56%−15
OursMarket
Draw26%23%+3
OursMarket
Pumas UNAM33%21%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 62% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 77% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 73% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Columbus Crew
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 7 · v CF Pachuca (H)2-1
- Aug 4 · v Atlas FC (H)3-1
- Aug 1 · at Inter Miami CF (A)2-2
- Jul 25 · v FC Cincinnati (H)2-1
- Jul 22 · v New York City FC (H)1-2
Pumas UNAM
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 8 · at FC Cincinnati (A)0-2
- Aug 5 · at Charlotte FC (A)0-3
- Aug 1 · at FC Juárez (A)5-1
- Jul 22 · at CD Toluca (A)2-1
- Jul 18 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Columbus Crew | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.