US Open Cup (USA) · Thu, Oct 22 · 00:00 · Columbus Crew vs St.Louis City
Likeliest: Columbus Crew win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Columbus Crew47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
St.Louis City28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 63% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Columbus Crew
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Cincinnati (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Charlotte FC (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Orlando City SC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Inter Miami CF (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at CF Montréal (A)2-0
St.Louis City
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Minnesota United (A)2-3
- Oct 15 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · v LA Galaxy (H)6-2
- Sep 30 · at New York Red Bulls (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Toronto FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Columbus Crew | St.Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.