Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 19:30 · Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
Likeliest: Columbus Crew win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 38% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Columbus Crew60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Toronto FC19%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Columbus Crew
WinWinLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · at FC Cincinnati (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Charlotte FC (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Orlando City SC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Inter Miami CF (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at CF Montréal (A)2-0
Toronto FC
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at New York Red Bulls (A)2-0
- Oct 14 · v Orlando City SC (H)3-3
- Oct 10 · v CF Montréal (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Nashville SC (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · at St.Louis City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Columbus Crew | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.