Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:30 · Comerciantes Unidos vs ADC Juan Pablo II
Likeliest: Comerciantes Unidos win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Comerciantes Unidos40%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
ADC Juan Pablo II36%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Comerciantes Unidos
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Sport Huancayo (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Universitario (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v FC Cajamarca (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)3-1
ADC Juan Pablo II
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 20 · v CD Moquegua (H)4-0
- Sep 11 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)4-3
- Aug 22 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Comerciantes Unidos | ADC Juan Pablo II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.