Liga 1 (Peru) · Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 · Comerciantes Unidos vs Asociación Deportiva Tarma
Likeliest: Comerciantes Unidos win · 53%
Likely scores: 1–1 14% · 2–0 11% · 1–0 10%
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Comerciantes Unidos53%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%0
OursMarket
Asociación Deportiva Tarma21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Comerciantes Unidos
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 30 · at Melgar (A)1-1
- Oct 25 · v Cienciano (H)3-1
- Oct 18 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)2-4
- Oct 10 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)1-2
Asociación Deportiva Tarma
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 28 · v CD Moquegua (H)2-0
- Oct 23 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)1-1
- Oct 16 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v FC Cajamarca (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · v Cienciano (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Comerciantes Unidos | Asociación Deportiva Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 0-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.