Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 25 · 16:00 · Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano
Likeliest: Cienciano win · 50%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Comerciantes Unidos22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Cienciano50%47%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Comerciantes Unidos
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)2-4
- Oct 10 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Sport Huancayo (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Universitario (A)2-2
Cienciano
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (H)1-0
- Oct 8 · at CD Moquegua (A)2-0
- Sep 30 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Comerciantes Unidos | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.