Serie A (Italy) · Thu, Jan 15 · 19:45 · Como vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Como win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 32%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como42%32%+10
OursMarket
Draw28%30%−2
OursMarket
AC Milan30%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 68% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 46% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Jan 10 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Jan 6 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- Jan 3 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- Dec 27 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Dec 15 · at Roma (A)0-1
AC Milan
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Jan 11 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- Jan 8 · v Genoa (H)1-1
- Jan 2 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
- Dec 28 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-0
- Dec 14 · v Sassuolo (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Como | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.