Serie A Femminile (Italy) · Sat, Sep 26 · 16:00 · Como vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Como win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 32%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como49%32%+17
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
AC Milan26%41%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 59% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 68% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 44% | +21 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at Frosinone (A)0-2
- Sep 14 · v Parma (H)2-1
- Sep 10 · v RB Leipzig (H)4-1
- Sep 4 · at Genoa (A)4-1
- Aug 30 · at Napoli (A)2-1
AC Milan
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 20 · v Lecce (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Benfica (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Lazio (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Juventus (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Venezia (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Como | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.