Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 1 · 14:00 · Como vs Atalanta
Likeliest: Como win · 45%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como45%43%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Atalanta29%28%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 45% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 61% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Jan 27 · at Fiorentina (A)3-1
- Jan 24 · v Torino (H)6-0
- Jan 19 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- Jan 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-3
- Jan 10 · v Bologna (H)1-1
Atalanta
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Jan 28 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v Parma (H)4-0
- Jan 21 · v Athletic Club (H)2-3
- Jan 16 · at Pisa (A)1-1
- Jan 10 · v Torino (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Como | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.