Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 10 · 14:00 · Como vs Bologna
Likeliest: Como win · 48%
We make it 53% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como48%49%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Bologna27%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 68% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
LossLossWinWinWin
- Jan 6 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- Jan 3 · v Udinese (H)1-0
- Dec 27 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Dec 15 · at Roma (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Inter (A)0-4
Bologna
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 7 · v Atalanta (H)0-2
- Jan 4 · at Inter (A)1-3
- Dec 28 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Dec 14 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Dec 11 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Como | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.