Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 14 · 14:00 · Como vs Fiorentina
Likeliest: Como win · 56%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−2
OursMarket
Fiorentina22%21%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 72% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Feb 10 · at Napoli (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Atalanta (H)0-0
- Jan 27 · at Fiorentina (A)3-1
- Jan 24 · v Torino (H)6-0
- Jan 19 · at Lazio (A)3-0
Fiorentina
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 7 · v Torino (H)2-2
- Jan 31 · at Napoli (A)1-2
- Jan 27 · v Como (H)1-3
- Jan 24 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at Bologna (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Como | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.