Coppa Italia (Italy) · Tue, Mar 3 · 20:00 · Como vs Inter
Likeliest: Como win · 38%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como38%32%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
Inter38%39%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 68% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 45% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 28 · v Lecce (H)3-1
- Feb 21 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- Feb 18 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fiorentina (H)1-2
- Feb 10 · at Napoli (A)1-1
Inter
WinLossWinLossWin
- Feb 28 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Feb 24 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)1-2
- Feb 21 · at Lecce (A)2-0
- Feb 18 · at Bodø / Glimt (A)1-3
- Feb 14 · v Juventus (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Como | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 9-0-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.