Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Feb 28 · 14:00 · Como vs Lecce
Likeliest: Como win · 52%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 41%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como52%69%−17
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+4
OursMarket
Lecce23%11%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 41% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 89% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 31% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 87% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
DrawDrawLossDrawWin
- Feb 21 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- Feb 18 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fiorentina (H)1-2
- Feb 10 · at Napoli (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · v Atalanta (H)0-0
Lecce
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Feb 21 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Feb 16 · at Cagliari (A)2-0
- Feb 8 · v Udinese (H)2-1
- Feb 1 · at Torino (A)0-1
- Jan 24 · v Lazio (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Como | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.