Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 2 · 16:00 · Como vs Napoli
Likeliest: Como win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como46%42%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%30%−3
OursMarket
Napoli27%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 44% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 70% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 59% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Apr 26 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Apr 21 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Apr 17 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Inter (H)3-4
- Apr 6 · at Udinese (A)0-0
Napoli
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Apr 24 · v Cremonese (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Apr 12 · at Parma (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
- Mar 20 · at Cagliari (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Como | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.