Serie A (Italy) · Sun, May 17 · 10:30 · Como vs Parma
Likeliest: Como win · 63%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como63%75%−12
OursMarket
Draw22%16%+6
OursMarket
Parma15%8%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 92% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 25% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 90% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
LossLossWinDrawWin
- May 10 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Napoli (H)0-0
- Apr 26 · at Genoa (A)2-0
- Apr 21 · at Inter (A)2-3
- Apr 17 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
Parma
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- May 10 · v Roma (H)2-3
- May 3 · at Inter (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Pisa (H)1-0
- Apr 18 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Apr 12 · v Napoli (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Como | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.