Champions League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 10 · 19:00 · Como vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: Como win · 55%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 40%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como55%52%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
RB Leipzig21%24%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 60% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 76% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 68% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 4 · at Genoa (A)4-1
- Aug 30 · at Napoli (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Udinese (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Cremonese (A)4-1
- May 17 · v Parma (H)1-0
RB Leipzig
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 5 · at SV Werder Bremen (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Borussia M'gladbach (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · at Eintracht Trier (A)6-0
- May 16 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
- May 9 · v St. Pauli (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Como | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.