Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 15 · 17:00 · Como vs Roma
Likeliest: Como win · 44%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como44%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−3
OursMarket
Roma31%26%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 74% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 64% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Mar 7 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
- Mar 3 · v Inter (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · v Lecce (H)3-1
- Feb 21 · at Juventus (A)2-0
- Feb 18 · at AC Milan (A)1-1
Roma
DrawWinDrawLossDraw
- Mar 12 · at Bologna (A)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Genoa (A)1-2
- Mar 1 · v Juventus (H)3-3
- Feb 22 · v Cremonese (H)3-0
- Feb 15 · at Napoli (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Como | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.