Serie A (Italy) · Fri, Nov 28 · 19:45 · Como vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Como win · 43%
A 29% away win. The market says 18%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como43%57%−14
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Sassuolo29%18%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 82% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 43% | +14 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 76% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Nov 24 · at Torino (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Cagliari (H)0-0
- Nov 1 · at Napoli (A)0-0
- Oct 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)3-1
- Oct 25 · at Parma (A)0-0
Sassuolo
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Nov 24 · v Pisa (H)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Atalanta (A)3-0
- Nov 3 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Oct 30 · at Cagliari (A)2-1
- Oct 26 · v Roma (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Como | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-5-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.