Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 24 · 14:00 · Como vs Torino
Likeliest: Como win · 50%
A 24% away win. The market says 17%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como50%58%−9
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Torino24%17%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 83% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 42% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 78% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Jan 19 · at Lazio (A)3-0
- Jan 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-3
- Jan 10 · v Bologna (H)1-1
- Jan 6 · at Pisa (A)3-0
- Jan 3 · v Udinese (H)1-0
Torino
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Jan 18 · v Roma (H)0-2
- Jan 13 · at Roma (A)3-2
- Jan 10 · at Atalanta (A)0-2
- Jan 7 · v Udinese (H)1-2
- Jan 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Como | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.