Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 3 · 11:30 · Como vs Udinese
Likeliest: Como win · 49%
A 25% away win. The market says 20%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Como49%54%−6
OursMarket
Draw27%26%0
OursMarket
Udinese25%20%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 46% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 74% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Como
WinWinLossLossWin
- Dec 27 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Dec 15 · at Roma (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · at Inter (A)0-4
- Nov 28 · v Sassuolo (H)2-0
- Nov 24 · at Torino (A)5-1
Udinese
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Dec 27 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Dec 21 · at Fiorentina (A)1-5
- Dec 14 · v Napoli (H)1-0
- Dec 8 · v Genoa (H)1-2
- Dec 2 · at Juventus (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Como | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.