Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 11:00 · Comoros vs Namibia
Likeliest: draw · 36%
A 28% away win. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Comoros36%51%−15
OursMarket
Draw36%29%+7
OursMarket
Namibia28%20%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 38% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 71% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 72% | −16 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Comoros
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 24 · at Cameroon (A)1-3
- Nov 17 · v Namibia (H)4-0
- Nov 14 · v Namibia (H)1-0
- Jun 9 · at Kosovo (A)2-4
- Mar 2 · v Malawi (H)0-2
Namibia
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 24 · v Congo Republic (H)1-0
- Mar 25 · at Kazakhstan (A)0-2
- Nov 17 · at Comoros (A)0-4
- Nov 14 · at Comoros (A)0-1
- Jun 1 · at Lesotho (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Comoros | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-0-3 | 1-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.