V-League (Vietnam) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:15 · Công An Hà Nội vs Hà Nội
Likeliest: Công An Hà Nội win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Công An Hà Nội57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
Hà Nội21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Công An Hà Nội
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 13 · v Kashima Antlers (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Trường Tươi Đồng Nai (A)3-0
- Sep 15 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-4
- Sep 10 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (H)2-0
Hà Nội
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Bắc Ninh FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Sông Lam Nghệ An (H)1-4
- Sep 5 · at Hồ Chí Minh City (A)1-3
- Jun 7 · v Công an TP.Hồ Chí Minh (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Hồ Chí Minh City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Công An Hà Nội | Hà Nội |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.