AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 12:15 · Công An Hà Nội vs Kashima Antlers
Likeliest: Kashima Antlers win · 67%
Likely score: 1–2
A 67% away win. The market says 62%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Công An Hà Nội13%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%21%0
OursMarket
Kashima Antlers67%62%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 38% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 22% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Công An Hà Nội
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Trường Tươi Đồng Nai (A)3-0
- Sep 15 · at Gamba Osaka (A)1-4
- Sep 10 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)1-0
- Sep 5 · v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (H)2-0
- Aug 11 · at Adelaide United (A)2-0
Kashima Antlers
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Gamba Osaka (H)2-0
- Sep 23 · v Ventforet Kofu (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Kawasaki Frontale (A)3-3
- Sep 15 · v Newcastle Jets (H)7-1
- Sep 11 · at Vissel Kobe (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Công An Hà Nội | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.