AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 12:15 · Công An Hà Nội vs Kyoto Sanga FC
Likeliest: Kyoto Sanga FC win · 49%
Likely scores: 1–2 15% · 0–1 12% · 1–1 12%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the away win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Công An Hà Nội25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Kyoto Sanga FC49%47%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 38% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Công An Hà Nội
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 31 · at Sông Lam Nghệ An (A)1-1
- Oct 27 · at Shanghai Port (A)3-2
- Oct 22 · v Đông Á Thanh Hóa (H)1-1
- Oct 18 · v Hà Nội (H)1-2
- Oct 13 · v Kashima Antlers (H)0-1
Kyoto Sanga FC
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 31 · v Shimizu S-Pulse (H)2-0
- Oct 27 · v Newcastle Jets (H)5-2
- Oct 24 · at Gamba Osaka (A)2-2
- Oct 21 · v Kashima Antlers (H)2-2
- Oct 17 · at Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Công An Hà Nội | Kyoto Sanga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.