Primera División (Chile) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:00 · Coquimbo Unido vs Colo Colo
Likeliest: Colo Colo win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coquimbo Unido27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Colo Colo43%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coquimbo Unido
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Cobresal (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Universidad de Chile (A)2-4
- Sep 2 · v Universidad de Concepción (H)1-0
- Aug 31 · v Huachipato (H)0-0
- Aug 26 · v Universidad Católica (H)1-2
Colo Colo
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v Deportes Concepción (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Huachipato (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Audax Italiano (H)5-1
- Aug 23 · at Universidad de Chile (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v O'Higgins (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Coquimbo Unido | Colo Colo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-1 | 5-1-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.