Primera División (Chile) · Mon, Aug 31 · 00:00 · Coquimbo Unido vs Huachipato
Likeliest: Coquimbo Unido win · 66%
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coquimbo Unido66%59%+7
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−3
OursMarket
Huachipato13%18%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 53% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 82% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 41% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 77% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coquimbo Unido
DrawDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 26 · v Universidad Católica (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Deportes Concepción (A)1-1
- Aug 19 · v Platense (H)0-0
- Aug 12 · at Platense (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Deportes La Serena (H)1-1
Huachipato
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 22 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-3
- Aug 18 · at Palestino (A)1-5
- Aug 8 · v Everton de Viña del Mar (H)1-4
- Aug 2 · at Universidad de Chile (A)0-2
- Jul 25 · v Cobresal (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Coquimbo Unido | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 0-2-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-1 | 0-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.