Copa Libertadores (South America) · Wed, Aug 19 · 22:00 · Coquimbo Unido vs Platense
Likeliest: Coquimbo Unido win · 60%
We make it 69% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 63%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coquimbo Unido60%40%+20
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Platense15%29%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 37% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 41% | 44% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 71% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 60% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 58% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coquimbo Unido
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Aug 12 · at Platense (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Deportes La Serena (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Palestino (A)1-2
- Jun 13 · v O'Higgins (H)0-0
- May 31 · at Deportes Limache (A)3-2
Platense
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- Aug 16 · v Boca Juniors (H)1-1
- Aug 12 · v Coquimbo Unido (H)0-0
- Aug 9 · at CA Independiente (A)1-0
- Aug 3 · v Talleres (H)0-4
- Jul 30 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Coquimbo Unido | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.