Primera División (Chile) · Wed, Aug 26 · 22:00 · Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad Católica
Likeliest: Coquimbo Unido win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 42%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Coquimbo Unido47%42%+5
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Universidad Católica26%30%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 58% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Coquimbo Unido
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Aug 23 · at Deportes Concepción (A)1-1
- Aug 19 · v Platense (H)0-0
- Aug 12 · at Platense (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Deportes La Serena (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Palestino (A)1-2
Universidad Católica
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 23 · v Ñublense (H)1-2
- Aug 19 · v Estudiantes de La Plata (H)0-3
- Aug 12 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)1-1
- Aug 8 · v Cobresal (H)2-0
- Aug 2 · at Deportes Concepción (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Coquimbo Unido | Universidad Católica |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-0 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.