Copa Libertadores (South America) · Thu, Sep 17 · 00:30 · Corinthians vs Estudiantes de La Plata
Likeliest: Corinthians win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Corinthians50%51%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+1
OursMarket
Estudiantes de La Plata20%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 38% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Corinthians
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · at Flamengo (A)1-2
- Sep 10 · at Estudiantes de La Plata (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Chapecoense (H)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Santos (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Coritiba (A)1-2
Estudiantes de La Plata
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 12 · v Platense (H)2-1
- Sep 10 · v Corinthians (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Vélez Sarsfield (A)0-1
- Aug 31 · v Newell's Old Boys (H)0-0
- Aug 27 · v Barracas Central (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Corinthians | Estudiantes de La Plata |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.