Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Thu, Aug 6 · 23:00 · Corinthians vs Internacional
Likeliest: Corinthians win · 56%
We make it 74% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Corinthians56%50%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Internacional19%22%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 43% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 78% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 50% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 69% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Corinthians
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 2 · at Internacional (A)0-2
- Jul 30 · v Athletico (H)0-0
- Jul 26 · at Bahia (A)1-1
- Jul 23 · v Remo (H)3-0
- May 30 · at Grêmio (A)3-1
Internacional
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 2 · v Corinthians (H)2-0
- Jul 29 · v Flamengo (H)1-1
- Jul 25 · at Athletico (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · v Cruzeiro (H)1-2
- May 31 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Corinthians | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.