Copa Libertadores (South America) · Fri, Aug 21 · 00:30 · Corinthians vs Rosario Central
Likeliest: Corinthians win · 44%
A 25% away win. The market says 20%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Corinthians44%49%−5
OursMarket
Draw31%31%0
OursMarket
Rosario Central25%20%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 32% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 71% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Corinthians
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Aug 16 · v Cruzeiro (H)1-2
- Aug 14 · at Rosario Central (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · at Red Bull Bragantino (A)2-0
- Aug 6 · v Internacional (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · at Internacional (A)0-2
Rosario Central
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 16 · at Barracas Central (A)1-0
- Aug 14 · v Corinthians (H)0-0
- Aug 7 · v Aldosivi (H)2-1
- Aug 2 · at River Plate (A)1-0
- Jul 29 · v Racing Club (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Corinthians | Rosario Central |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.