Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · Cork City vs Finn Harps
Likeliest: Cork City win · 86%
Likely score: 3–1
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cork City86%82%+4
OursMarket
Draw9%11%−2
OursMarket
Finn Harps5%7%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 14% | 18% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 91% | 89% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.3 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cork City
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 2 · at Athlone Town (A)1-2
- Sep 26 · at Longford Town (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v University College Dublin (H)5-1
- Sep 11 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Bray Wanderers (A)1-1
Finn Harps
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · v Kerry FC (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Treaty United FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Longford Town (H)0-1
- Sep 11 · at Wexford FC (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Athlone Town (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Cork City | Finn Harps |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-2 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.