USL League One (USA) · Sun, Oct 11 · 00:30 · Corpus Christi FC vs FC Naples
Likeliest: Corpus Christi FC win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Corpus Christi FC46%47%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Naples27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Corpus Christi FC
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 8 · v Fort Wayne FC (H)1-3
- Oct 3 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v AC Boise (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Union Omaha SC (H)1-2
FC Naples
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 7 · v Richmond Kickers (H)2-0
- Oct 3 · v New York Cosmos (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Fort Wayne FC (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · at One Knoxville SC (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Corpus Christi FC | FC Naples |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.