USL League One (USA) · Thu, Oct 8 · 00:30 · Corpus Christi FC vs Fort Wayne FC
Likeliest: Fort Wayne FC win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Corpus Christi FC35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Fort Wayne FC37%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Corpus Christi FC
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Chattanooga Red Wolves SC (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v AC Boise (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Union Omaha SC (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Forward Madison FC (H)0-2
Fort Wayne FC
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Forward Madison FC (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Charlotte Independence (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v FC Naples (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · v One Knoxville SC (H)2-3
- Sep 12 · at Greenville Triumph SC (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Corpus Christi FC | Fort Wayne FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.